Viewing cable 07PARIS2440, FRENCH MFA OFFICIAL SHARES VIEWS ON IRAN/IRAQ
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
07PARIS2440 | 2007-06-07 17:05 | 2010-11-29 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Paris |
VZCZCXYZ0015 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHFRA #2440 1581725 ZNY CCCCC ZZH ZUI RUEWMCE1074 1581702 O 071725Z JUN 07 FM AMEMBASSY PARIS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0000 INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002440 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/7/2017 TAGS: PREL FR IR IZ PGOV SUBJECT: FRENCH MFA OFFICIAL SHARES VIEWS ON IRAN/IRAQ CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: FRANCK GELLET, FRENCH DAS-EQUIVALENT FOR THE PAGE 02 RUEHFRA2440 C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002440 PERSIAN GULF, SHARED HIS VIEWS ON IRAN AND IRAQ ON JUNE 7. GELLET ASSESSED THAT THE IRANIANS ARE OVERCONFIDENT AND VULNERABLE TO A BAN ON INTERNATIONAL AIR TRAVEL. HIS ASSESSMENT OF IRAQ WAS NOTABLY BLEAK. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) OVER LUNCH JUNE 7, THE MFAS DAS-EQUIVALENT FOR THE PERSIAN GULF, FRANCK GELLET, SHARED HIS VIEWS ON IRAN AND IRAQ. HAVING RECENTLY RETURNED FROM A 15-DAY TRIP TO IRAN, GELLET SAID THAT HIS MOST SERIOUS AND USEFUL INTERLOCUTOR WAS FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER VELAYATI, WHOM HE DESCRIBED AS BEING "LESS ROMANTIC" THAN THE REGIME'S OTHER FOREIGN POLICY HEAVYWEIGHTS. GELLET SAID THAT VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE IRANIAN OFFICIALS HE MET OVERESTIMATED THE REGIME'S STRENGTH, BOTH ON THE REGIONAL AND THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE. "THE IRANIANS ARE CONVINCED THAT NO ONE -- INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES -- CAN TOUCH THEM ECONOMICALLY OR MILITARILY. THEY SIMPLY CAN'T IMAGINE THAT THE U.S. HAS THE CAPACITY AND THE POLITICAL WILL TO LAUNCH A MILITARY STRIKE AGAINST THEM AT A TIME WHEN THE U.S. MILITARY APPEARS TO BE BOGGED DOWN IN IRAQ," SAID GELLET. PAGE 03 RUEHFRA2440 C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002440 ¶3. (C) GELLET SAID HIS OWN VIEW (WHICH, HE CAUTIONED, IS NOT SHARED BY EVERYONE AT THE MFA), IS THAT IF THE EUROPEANS REALLY WANT TO AVOID A MILITARY CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN THEN THEY NEED TO SHOW THE IRANIANS THEY ARE SERIOUS ABOUT ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. "THE IRANIANS WILL NEVER BLINK UNTIL THEY FEEL THAT THE REGIME'S SURVIVAL IS AT STAKE," SAID GELLET. HE SUGGESTED THAT -- IN ADDITION TO A FURTHER SANCTIONS ON THE BANKING SECTOR, A FULL ARMS EMBARGO, AND A CUT IN EXPORT CREDITS -- THE IRANIANS MIGHT BE VULNERABLE TO AN EMBARGO OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS. IN ADDITION, HE SUGGESTED THAT WE NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE DRAMATIC ISOLATING EFFECT THAT A BAN ON INTERNATIONAL AIR TRAVEL TO AND FROM IRAN WOULD HAVE. GELLET NOTED THAT THESE WERE JUST HIS PERSONAL VIEWS, AND SAID THAT HE HAS NOT YET RECEIVED ANY GUIDANCE FROM THE NEW PRESIDENCY ON IRAN SANCTIONS. HE OBSERVED THAT PRESIDENT SARKOZY TOOK A HARD LINE AGAINST THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM DURING HIS ELECTION CAMPAIGN, BUT SAID IT REMAINED TO BE SEEN WHAT THAT WOULD TRANSLATE INTO IN POLICY TERMS. PAGE 04 RUEHFRA2440 C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002440 ¶4. (C) GELLET, WHO SERVED FOR NEARLY THREE YEARS AT THE FRENCH EMBASSY IN BAGHDAD BEFORE ASSUMING HIS CURRENT POSITION, HAD A PARTICULARLY GRIM VIEW OF IRAQ. "WE DON'T HAVE THE SLIGHTEST HOPE IT CAN BE SALVAGED -- IT'S LOST," HE SAID. HE PREDICTED THAT IRAQ WILL DESCEND INTO FULL-SCALE CIVIL WAR WHETHER OR NOT MNF-I REMAINS. ON THE OTHER HAND, HE PREDICTED THAT IF THE COALITION WERE TO WITHDRAW THERE WOULD BE AN IMMEDIATE AND HORRIFIC SPIKE IN THE LEVEL OF VIOLENCE. "YOUR DEPARTURE WOULD BE SEEN EVERYWHERE AS A SIGN THAT IT'S TIME FOR THE GLOVES TO COME OFF," HE SAID. HE FURTHER PREDICTED THAT, IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE COALITION'S DEPARTURE (WHENEVER THAT OCCURS), THE ENSUING CONFLICT WOULD LAST MANY YEARS UNTIL IRAQ'S SUNNIS AND SHIITES (AND THEIR RESPECTIVE PATRONS) WERE EXHAUSTED. AS FOR THE KURDS, GELLET SAID THEY SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATED THE RISK THAT THEY WOULD BE ANNIHILATED DURING THE COURSE OF A CIVIL WAR THAT WOULD LIKELY PULL IN MOST OF IRAQ'S NEIGHBORS, INCLUDING TURKEY. ¶5. (C) NOTWITHSTANDING HIS BLEAK ANALYSIS, GELLET ENCOURAGED PAGE 05 RUEHFRA2440 C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002440 THE U.S. TO CONTINUE ITS EFFORTS TO PROMOTE RECONCILIATION. HE NOTED THAT ONE COMPLAINT HE OFTEN HEARD FROM HIS SUNNI CONTACTS WAS THAT THEY RECEIVED CONFLICTING MESSAGES FROM THE VARIOUS USG AGENCIES ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ, AND WERE NEVER SURE WHICH OF THEM HAD THE ULTIMATE DECISION-MAKING AUTHORITY. GELLET FINISHED BY WARNING THAT OUR TRIBAL ALLIES IN ANBAR PROVINCE WOULD TURN ON US WHENEVER IT SUITED THEIR INTERESTS TO DO SO. PLEASE VISIT PARIS' CLASSIFIED WEBSITE AT: HTTP://WWW.STATE.SGOV.GOV/P/EUR/PARIS/INDEX.C FM STAPLETON
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