Viewing cable 07PARIS170, CHIRAC'S ENVOY TO IRAN -- WHAT'S PROMPTING THIS
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
07PARIS170 | 2007-01-17 14:02 | 2010-11-29 12:12 | SECRET | Embassy Paris |
VZCZCXYZ0002 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHFRA #0170 0171418 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 171418Z JAN 07 FM AMEMBASSY PARIS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0000 INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
S E C R E T PARIS 000170 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2017 TAGS: FR IR LE PGOV PREL SUBJECT: CHIRAC'S ENVOY TO IRAN -- WHAT'S PROMPTING THIS AND WHAT WE SHOULD DO ABOUT IT CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT, REASONS PAGE 02 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (S) LE MONDE'S JAN. 17 EDITION RAN A FRONT-PAGE STORY ON CHIRAC,S INTEREST IN PURSUING A DIALOGUE WITH IRAN ON LEBANON, THUS CONFIRMING WHAT MFA POLITICAL DIRECTOR GERARD ARAUD TOLD THE AMBASSADOR DURING THEIR JAN. 15 MEETING. WE FACE THE PROSPECT OF UNTOWARD POLICY INITIATIVES BY CHIRAC DURING THE WANING MONTHS OF HIS PRESIDENCY. (THE FIRST ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE HELD APRIL 22; IT IS WIDELY ASSUMED THAT CHIRAC WILL NOT BE IN A POSITION TO RUN FOR A THIRD TERM.) WE MAY HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD IN WHICH THE DOMESTIC POLITICAL CONTEXT WILL IMPACT DIRECTLY ON FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS, PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO LEBANON AND IRAN. ¶2. (S) FIRST OF ALL THE FACTS, AS WE KNOW THEM AND AS CONVEYED TO AMBASSADOR STAPLETON BY ARAUD. CHIRAC FAVORED ENLISTING IRAN IN AN EFFORT TO BREAK THE STALEMATE IN LEBANON. TO THIS END, THE PRESIDENCY PROPOSED SENDING FOREIGN MINISTER DOUSTE-BLAZY TO TEHRAN TO SOUND OUT THE PAGE 03 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T IRANIANS ON THEIR PLAYING A CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE IN LEBANON -- WITHOUT REFERENCE TO THE NUCLEAR ISSUE. THE FOREIGN MINISTRY, UNCONVINCED THAT THERE WOULD BE ANY IRANIAN INTEREST, AND CONCERNED ABOUT APPROACHING IRAN AS A DEMANDEUR, OPPOSED THE INITIATIVE. SAUDI ARABIA AND EGYPT BOTH VOICED STRENUOUS OBJECTIONS. U/S BURNS RAISED USG CONCERNS DIRECTLY WITH ARAUD. THE ELYSEE THEREFORE BACKED OFF "FOR NOW" ACCORDING TO THE MFA SPOKESMAN YESTERDAY. WHILE ARAUD DID NOT MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A VISIT TO TEHRAN BY A LOWER-RANKING ENVOY, LE MONDE HINTED THAT MIDDLE EAST TROUBLE-SHOOTER JEAN-CLAUDE COUSSERAN, WHO VISITED THE IRANIAN CAPITAL IN JULY, DURING THE ISRAEL/HIZBALLAH WAR, COULD BE DISPATCHED AGAIN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. ¶3. (S) REPORTING IN OTHER CHANNELS INDICATES THIS IS INDEED POSSIBLE. THE DECISION NOT TO SEND DOUSTE-BLAZY COULD WELL BE DEFINITIVE. EVEN IF A LOWER-LEVEL EMISSARY IS SENT TO TEHRAN, THE MAKINGS OF A DEAL ON LEBANON ARE NOT OBVIOUS. HOWEVER, THIS EPISODE HAS HIGHLIGHTED A NUMBER OF CONTEXTUAL FACTORS AND HYPOTHESES THAT GIVE RISE TO A FEW CONCERNS. PAGE 04 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T ¶4. (S) THE FIRST IS THAT THE DISTORTING EFFECT OF CHIRAC,S "OBSESSION WITH LEBANON" (ARAUD,S WORDS) MIGHT ONLY BE FURTHER ACCENTUATED AS HIS PRESIDENCY DRAWS TO A CLOSE. CHIRAC,S FOCUS COULD BE NARROWING IN ON ONE SINGLE OBJECTIVE: TO ENSURE THAT THE SYRIAN REGIME, WHICH HE REGARDS AS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ASSASSINATION OF RAFIK HARIRI, DOES NOT GAIN A NEW FOOTHOLD IN LEBANON. THIS COULD TRANSLATE INTO A WILLINGNESS TO WORK WITH IRAN TO FIND SOME SORT OF ACCOMMODATION WHICH STRENGTHENS HIZBOLLAH IN LEBANON, BUT PREVENTS THE STRATEGIC RETURN OF SYRIA. NO MFA OR ELYSEE INTERLOCUTOR HAS POINTED US TO SUCH A CONCLUSION, BUT WE ARE LEFT WITH FEW OTHER EXPLANATIONS FOR CHIRAC'S APPARENT DETERMINATION TO REACH OUT AT THIS TIME TO HIZBOLLAH,S MAIN REGIONAL SPONSOR. ¶5. (S) MOREOVER, THIS ANALYSIS IS CONSISTENT WITH OTHER INDICATIONS OF LATE THAT FRANCE IS FIXATED ON LOWERING TENSIONS IN LEBANON. THESE INCLUDE, INTER ALIA: THE RELUCTANCE (THUS FAR) TO OPERATE FRENCH UAVS OVER SOUTHERN PAGE 05 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T LEBANON; THE MFA'S DECISION IN LATE DECEMBER TO "TAKE A BREAK" FROM PUSHING FOR THE RAPID ESTABLISHMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL FOR LEBANON; AND THE FACT THAT MFA DESK OFFICERS ARE CAREFULLY SCRUBBING PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S PROPOSED INTERVENTION AT THE JANUARY 25 LEBANON CONFERENCE TO ENSURE THAT THE PRESIDENT'S MESSAGE DOES NOT ANTAGONIZE THE LEBANESE OPPOSITION. IN ADDITION, CHIRACS NEW-FOUND CAUTION ON LEBANON AND HIS PROPOSED OVERTURE TO IRAN MAY BOTH REFLECT THE FRENCH PRESIDENT'S FEAR OF INCURRING FRENCH CASUALTIES IN LEBANON IN THE FINAL MONTHS OF HIS PRESIDENCY. ¶6. (S) ANOTHER CONCERN RELATES TO CHIRAC,S FOREIGN POLICY LEGACY, WHICH HINGES SIGNIFICANTLY ON TWO ACHIEVEMENTS, HIS LEADERSHIP IN OPPOSING THE U.S. OVER IRAQ, AND IN RESTORING LEBANON,S INDEPENDENCE. THE LE MONDE REPORT WHICH BROKE THE NEWS OF THE ABORTED DOUSTE-BLAZY MISSION CLOSES WITH SPECULATION THAT CHIRAC IS INCREASINGLY ALARMED BY U.S. INTENTIONS VIS A VIS IRAN. CHIRAC COULD BE TEMPTED BY POLICY INITIATIVES THAT SERVE TO BOLSTER HIS LEGACY ON BOTH COUNTS: PROTECTING LEBANON,S INDEPENDENCE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PAGE 06 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T STANDING STRONG AGAINST ANY PERCEIVED DANGEROUS DRIFT IN U.S. MIDDLE EAST POLICY, A REPRISE IN GENTLER FORM OF THE GLORY DAYS OF 2003. ¶7. (S) FINALLY, CONVENTIONAL WISDOM HERE HAS IT THAT THE ONLY CONCEIVABLE SCENARIO WHEREBY CHIRAC COULD BECOME A VIABLE CANDIDATE TO SUCCEED WOULD BE IN THE CONTEXT OF AN PAGE 02 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T INTERNATIONAL CRISIS. MIGHT CHIRAC BE POSITIONING HIMSELF TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AN IRAN-CENTERED CRISIS THAT WOULD OFFER HIS ONLY TICKET BACK TO THE ELYSEE? ¶8. (S) CHIRAC MAY CHOOSE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH HIS ENVOY IDEA BEFORE WE CAN GET FULL CLARIFICATION. IF HE DOES, IT SEEMS OBVIOUS (TO US AND TO MANY WITHIN THE FRENCH FOREIGN POLICY ESTABLISHMENT) THAT THE IRANIANS WILL SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ADVANCE THEIR OWN AGENDA IN LEBANON WHILE TRYING TO DRIVE A WEDGE BETWEEN FRANCE AND THE REST OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WITH RESPECT TO IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM. WE WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR INTERACTIONS WITH SENIOR FRENCH LEADERS OVER THE COMING DAYS TO MAKE CLEAR OUR CONCERNS, AS WE ASSUME WASHINGTON AGENCIES WILL DO AS WELL. HAVING NOTED THE COALITION RAID ON THE IRANIAN OFFICE IN IRBIL, THE DEPLOYMENT OF A NEW CARRIER BATTLE GROUP TO THE PERSIAN GULF, AND RECENT STATEMENTS ON IRAN BY SECDEF GATES AND OTHERS, THE FRENCH ARE AWARE OF THE GROWING PRESSURE ON TEHRAN. MAINTAINING OUR FULL AND FRANK EXCHANGES WITH THE FRENCH ON IRAN WILL BE PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT IN THE COMING DAYS. PAGE 03 RUEHFRA0170 S E C R E T PLEASE VISIT PARIS' CLASSIFIED WEBSITE AT: HTTP://WWW.STATE.SGOV.GOV/P/EUR/PARIS/INDEX.C FM STAPLETON
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